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Do steamers win? Pre-off moves vs results

Every GB and Irish runner we recorded, grouped by how its price moved in the last 10 minutes before the off, compared with how often it actually won. 1,752 settled races.

GroupRunnersWinnersWonImplied at the offDifference
Strong steamers
shortened 30%+ in probability terms
1,09515113.8%14.6%-0.8 pts
Steamers
shortened 15–30%
1,47723415.8%16.7%-0.8 pts
Steady
moved less than 15% either way
5,95097816.4%16.5%-0.0 pts
Drifters
lengthened 15–30%
1,74318610.7%10.5%+0.2 pts
Big drifters
lengthened 30%+
1,6581227.4%6.8%+0.6 pts

How to read this

Implied at the off is the average chance the final pre-off price gave these runners. If a group wins about as often as that, the market had already priced the move in; following it would have gained nothing before commission. A persistent positive difference would suggest the final price still underrated them.

Moves are measured in probability terms from 10 minutes out to the scheduled off, for runners priced 30.0 or shorter at 10 minutes. Samples are small at first and grow every race day, so treat single-digit differences with caution. This is research, not a betting system.

Glossary

Steamer

A horse whose price shortens sharply as money comes for it.

18+. Trading on exchanges carries real risk and many people lose money. Set limits before you start. Support: BeGambleAware, GAMSTOP.

Recent strong steamers

RunnerRace10m → offBSPResult
OneforthegutterEpsom 15:22, 27 Sep 202612.5 → 8.008.20lost
Damascus SteelEpsom 15:22, 27 Sep 202616.5 → 1210.8lost
No Ordinary JoeFfos Las 14:59, 27 Sep 202623 → 13–lost
Blue NoonEpsom 14:47, 27 Sep 20263.85 → 2.90–won
Soul LoveCurragh 14:35, 27 Sep 20265.20 → 3.70–won
Capability BrownCurragh 14:00, 27 Sep 202613 → 8.00–won
Blondie LarryFfos Las 13:49, 27 Sep 202612.5 → 9.20–lost
Rogue ImperialEpsom 13:37, 27 Sep 202617.5 → 13–won
Yellow SkyCurragh 13:25, 27 Sep 202617 → 12–lost
Up The AntiFfos Las 13:19, 27 Sep 202614 → 9.20–lost
Come On OverSouthwell 20:30, 26 Sep 20268.40 → 6.40–lost
Mr CoolSouthwell 20:30, 26 Sep 202621 → 14–lost
R P McmurphySouthwell 19:30, 26 Sep 202617.5 → 11–lost
Liam Mera KaiSouthwell 19:00, 26 Sep 202617.5 → 13–lost
Church WeddingSouthwell 19:00, 26 Sep 202627 → 20–lost
IndemnityMarket Rasen 17:30, 26 Sep 20268.00 → 5.30–lost
Saxony CharmsCurragh 17:25, 26 Sep 202610.5 → 7.00–won
Koala RoseRipon 17:15, 26 Sep 20263.15 → 2.16–lost
Alther WaldenHaydock 17:10, 26 Sep 20266.00 → 4.60–lost
Trojan SunHaydock 17:10, 26 Sep 20266.00 → 4.60–lost
Yaa MinHaydock 17:10, 26 Sep 202617.5 → 13–won
El ChampoListowel 17:05, 26 Sep 202611 → 8.20–lost
Meet And GreetListowel 17:05, 26 Sep 202615 → 10.5–lost
Huit RefletsMarket Rasen 17:00, 26 Sep 202623 → 16.5–lost
Native AmericanNewmarket 16:50, 26 Sep 202619 → 10–lost